538 2024 Model. Fivethirtyeight’s 2020 senate and house models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.